Wholesale prices are climbing faster than the shop shelf, and fuel is doing the pushing
Wholesale inflation rose to 9.87% in June, up from 9.68% in May, on data released July 14. It is the cost of goods before they reach the store.
Fuel and power led every group at 27.41%, with mineral oils up 46.48%. Manufactured products, the input basket for most consumer goods, rose 7.48%.
This is the number that lands on a factory before it lands on a price tag. When wholesale costs run this far ahead of retail, someone is absorbing the gap.
For now the maker is eating most of it. Retail inflation sat far below the wholesale print in June, which means brands are holding shelf prices and letting margin take the hit rather than risk volume in a fragile demand year.
That patience has a limit. If fuel and metals stay elevated into the festive quarter, the choice narrows to a price hike or a smaller pack, and the input squeeze that started at the refinery finishes at the checkout.