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Edition #191

The Insight Labs Daily.

Mon · Jul 20 · 2026 ~7 min read
★ Lead Story
3 hours ago · 2 min read

Zepto lists at a discount

On July 17, bankers said Zepto's anchor book for its roughly $800 million public issue was close to fully covered, with the price band expected this week (Business Standard).

The number that matters is the valuation. Zepto is going out at about $5.1 billion. Its last private round carried $7 billion. That is 27.1% lower.

Norway's sovereign fund Norges and Motilal Oswal are expected to take 40% to 45% of the anchor book between them. Foreign investors had indicated interest closer to $4.5 billion pre-money.

The private marks in Indian quick commerce were set when growth was the main thing being measured. The listing prices something else: what that growth costs to run, quarter after quarter.

If the fastest-growing format in Indian retail has to take a quarter off its price to reach public investors, what does that say about the marks still sitting on private books?

The markdown does not fall evenly. Employees holding options struck near the $7 billion mark and the investors who came in last carry most of it. The earlier backers still clear their cost several times over.

There is a second effect that helps the category. Once Zepto trades, Blinkit and Instamart stop being valued by analogy and start being valued against a live comparable with published unit economics. That tends to compress the range of what anyone can claim.

The caveat is timing. A down-round listing that trades up reads very differently from one that trades down, and the anchor demand suggests the book is priced to work. The spending has not slowed either: Blinkit, Instamart and Zepto together ran 5,026 dark stores in May against 3,405 a year earlier.

Today's Top 5

5 stories
Bajaj Consumer · Reported Jul 13

Growth came from smaller packs

Bajaj Consumer Care closed the June quarter with revenue of ₹341.57 crore, up 24.94%, and net profit of ₹70.75 crore, up 84.82%. EBITDA margin moved to 24.41% from 15.02% (Business Standard).

The company's own disclosure carries the qualifier. Almond Drops grew in the thirties in the domestic business, but underlying volume growth was in the early teens once adjusted for reductions in millilitres per pack.

Sachets and price-point packs grew well ahead of the brand average, and general trade delivered high-twenties growth. The shopper is still buying, in smaller units.

The gap between a thirty-plus value number and an early-teens volume number is the part worth holding on to. Roughly half the reported growth came from what the pack no longer contains rather than from more people buying it.

That works while the shopper does not notice or does not have a cheaper option. It stops working when a competitor holds grammage on the same shelf and the price per millilitre becomes visible, which is exactly what quick commerce listings now make easy to check.

FMCG · This week

Input costs are climbing again

FMCG raw material costs rose 13.2% year on year in May, on a weak rupee and higher global commodity prices.

Crude was up 58% year on year, which feeds packaging and freight before it touches the product. Palm oil was up 11.1%, pushed by Indonesia's biodiesel policy, and refined soyabean in Mumbai was up 20.7%.

The currency compounds it. The average dollar-rupee rate was 10.7% higher year on year, sitting just under ₹95, so every imported input takes the global price rise and the currency move together.

This is the other half of the Bajaj number. Companies cutting grammage in the June quarter were not being opportunistic so much as passing on a cost base that moved faster than they could raise a printed price.

There is some relief at the margin — palm oil traded at 4,565 MYR a tonne on July 17, softer through the month. But relief in a July input price shows up in a shelf price two quarters later, which puts it beyond the festive season.

E-Commerce · June data

Meesho closes on Flipkart

In June, Flipkart recorded about 85 million daily active users, Meesho about 70 million, and Amazon over 60 million, according to a BofA note (Entrackr).

Meesho now sits second on daily usage, ahead of Amazon, with no slowdown reported in its shipment volumes or merchandise value.

Myntra leads on fashion apps, which keeps the Flipkart group ahead on the categories that carry a basket value worth having.

Daily active users and revenue are not the same currency. Meesho's lead over Amazon is built on low-ticket, zero-commission orders, so the usage gap and the profit gap point in opposite directions.

What it does buy Meesho is frequency, and frequency is what an advertising business is sold on. The platform that can show a brand 70 million daily visits gets to price its ad inventory against Flipkart's, whatever the average order value says.

Phitku · This week

Seventeen months to an exit

Phitku, an alum-based deodorant brand that launched in January 2025, has sold a majority stake to Ananta Capital (Open Magazine).

It appeared on Shark Tank India in January 2026 and found its buyer within months. Founding to exit took about seventeen months.

The pattern is not isolated. Marico spent close to ₹1,000 crore across three weeks buying 4700BC, Skinetiq and Cosmix.

A seventeen-month exit says more about the buyers than the brand. India now has enough acquirers with capital allocated to consumer that a small brand with a clear claim does not have to build for a decade to find one.

The risk sits on the other side of the table. Buying distribution-ready brands at that speed means paying for a proof of demand that has run for four or five quarters, not four or five years, and the failure rate on that vintage will only be visible around 2028.

Trent · This week

Zudio is chasing 5,000 stores

Trent ended FY26 with 1,286 stores across 321 cities and has laid out a rollout of roughly 50 Westside, 200 to 250 Zudio and 25 to 40 Star stores a year.

Over the medium term it wants Westside to go from about 300 outlets to 700, and Zudio from about 960 to close to 5,000.

The company is also looking at international expansion while it continues to add brands at home (Apparel Resources).

Five times the Zudio count is a real-estate plan more than a fashion plan. It requires Trent to keep finding high-street space in towns where the format has not been tested, at rents that still clear its margin.

It also changes what the format is for. At 960 stores Zudio is a value brand competing with local retail; at 5,000 it becomes the default apparel shop in a large number of Indian towns, and its buying decisions start setting what an entire price tier looks like.

⚡ 30-Second Scan

Q1 season peaks: About 250 companies report June-quarter numbers between July 20 and 25, including UltraTech, Paytm, Infosys and IndiGo.
Dark stores: Blinkit, Instamart and Zepto together ran 5,026 dark stores in May, up from 3,405 a year earlier.
Jet fuel: Airlines got a ₹5 a litre cut in ATF on July 1, taking the price to about ₹110 a litre.

Sourced from public reporting; analysis by The Insight Labs.

Sources: Business Standard, Inc42, Investing.com, New Kerala, Trading Economics, Entrackr, BofA, Open Magazine, LoEstro, Apparel Resources, Indian Retailer.

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