On July 31, ITC closed its June quarter with revenue up 28% to ₹30,179 crore and consolidated profit down 16% to ₹4,394 crore. By August 3 the stock was trading near a 52-week low, not far from the ₹275 it touched in June.
The gap between selling more and earning less sits in one place: cigarettes. February's excise hike raised the tax on India's most dependable profit engine, and the margin on every pack thinned even as volumes held.
The newer FMCG business — foods, snacks, personal care — grew 12%, with the non-staples inside it up 16%. It is growing. It is not yet large enough to cover for a taxed cigarette pack.
The agri business fell 17%, hit by trade disruption around West Asia and a high base. Paper recovered. Neither moved the company the way tobacco still does.
The market's verdict reads as structural, not seasonal. Domestic funds hold about 49% of ITC; foreign investors have been trimming since 2024, down to roughly 34%. A stock held tight by local institutions and left by global ones usually signals a defensive story, not a growth one.
ITC's answer is to keep planting. It has stepped into cola with a coconut variant and keeps buying into foods, wagering that the day cigarettes stop paying the bills arrives on its own schedule rather than the taxman's. The quarter leaves one question open: how many more excise cycles before the new businesses have to carry the company, ready or not.