Apple Pay is entering India by walking around UPI
Apple Pay is expected to launch in India as early as October, with Axis Bank as its first partner, according to reporting this week. At launch it will support Visa and Mastercard tap-to-pay. It will not support UPI.
That is the whole story. UPI carries the overwhelming majority of India's retail digital payments and earns almost nothing per transaction. Cards carry a fraction of the volume and earn interchange. Apple is entering through the small door because the small door pays.
The delay has been commercial, not technical. Apple has been asking for 15 to 20 basis points of interchange per transaction. Indian banks have countered at roughly 10. HDFC and ICICI have both been in talks and neither has signed.
The interesting question is what Apple is actually buying with a card-only launch. It is not transaction volume — on cards, in India, that ceiling is low. It is the habit. A phone that becomes the default tap at a terminal is a phone that is harder to leave, and Apple's India install base has been growing fast enough to make that lock-in worth paying for.
For Axis, the calculation runs the other way. Being first gets premium-card acquisition and a marketing moment. But conceding 15 to 20 basis points on a card business that already runs thin sets a reference price every other bank will then be measured against. Which is the likeliest reason HDFC and ICICI have not moved.