The September numbers landed on 1 October. Carmakers sent 4.60 to 4.65 lakh passenger vehicles to dealers. Registrations came in at about 4.00 lakh, close to flat on last September.
The difference, 59,000 to 65,000 units, is sitting in dealer yards. It is the widest gap between what was shipped and what was sold in a single month this year.
The reason is a calendar. Navratri began on 22 September in 2025 and begins on 11 October in 2026. Last year the first week of festive retail fell inside September. This year none of it does, so the whole build arrived a month ahead of the selling.
The GST cut on cars widens the optics further. It took effect on 22 September 2025, so it applied to nine days of that month. This year the lower rates applied to all thirty, against a base that was thin for three of its four weeks.
Which is why the growth figure in every dispatch report this week is a stocking number, not a demand number.
Two readings survive. A strong festive October absorbs the extra 60,000 units within a few weeks and the stocking looks like good planning. Or retail comes in below the build, the same units sit through November, and the conversation turns to discounts and billing discipline. Which one happens is visible in the fortnight after 11 October.
What is already settled is who is carrying it. The working capital behind a record dispatch month sits on dealer balance sheets, not on manufacturer ones. That is the standard arrangement in Indian auto distribution, and it is also why dealer associations tend to start talking about inventory in late November rather than in early October.
One more line from the data is worth holding. The average time taken to convert an enquiry into a sale has stretched to 23 or 24 days, from 19. Buyers are taking longer to decide at the same time as makers are shipping faster, and the report flags pressure to raise prices into a higher retail base. On these numbers the volume will read better than the margin.